WELLINGTON-HALTON HILLS – Despite losing the advantage of having an incumbent MPP running, a McMaster University political science professor doesn’t expect Wellington-Halton Hills to stray from electing a Progressive Conservative (PC) in the next provincial election.
Throughout many iterations of the riding which at times has included parts of Dufferin, Peel and Waterloo, Wellington County has been represented by a PC at Queen’s Park since 1951 with few exceptions.
PC John Root was the local MPP from 1951 until 1975 and after him was PC Jack Johnson until 1990. Following this, current speaker of the house Ted Arnott was elected as a PC in 1990 and remains MPP in what is now known as Wellington-Halton Hills, a riding created in 2007 which includes Centre Wellington, Guelph/Eramosa, Puslinch, Erin and Halton Hills.
In the 1999 and 2003 provincial elections, Puslinch and Guelph/Eramosa were part of a riding with Guelph and went from PC to Liberal in 2003.
When Perth-Wellington, a riding including the three northern Wellington County municipalities of Wellington North, Minto and Mapleton, was first contested in 2007 it went to the Liberals before becoming consistently PC in the following elections with incumbent MPP Matthew Rae being acclaimed as the candidate to run again in the next election.
Last year, Arnott announced he would not seek re-election in the next provincial election.
McMaster political science professor Peter Graefe said although this could present a vulnerability due to a lack of an incumbent candidate, the greater provincial picture isn’t favourable to a turnover.
“I look at the provincial scale and I’m not seeing any parties that are really making a play to defeat the Conservatives and certainly not in areas outside of urban centres,” Graefe said.
“The NDP and the Liberals may be able to make claims to win in urban areas, maybe Bonnie Crombie has a shot in the suburbs … but I think by the time you reach Halton Hills, there doesn’t seem to be any kind of movement to dump the existing government or elect one of the opposition parties.”
He explained Wellington-Halton Hills is the kind of riding the PC party holds in nearly all parts of Ontario when considering it being on the rural side and the demographics of the population including race and religion, which has changed over time but not significantly.
He said Arnott has likely been winning not only because he was a popular candidate but because he was running in a riding that tends to go Conservative.
“I wouldn’t expect that you’d see Doug Ford (in Wellington-Halton Hills) during a provincial election because it’s one that is probably already put in their win column and they’re looking to be campaigning in seats where it’s less of a foregone conclusion,” he said.
In Graefe’s view, it would take the riding itself changing or one of the major opposition parties changing its tactics to convince voters it is a party that understands rural and small town living.
He noted in the past the Liberals had some success in rural Ontario but haven’t been competitive there in some time and he doesn’t see that changing in this election either due to how recent elections have been fought.
“Liberals start from downtown Toronto and then move out into the GTA and the Conservatives start in rural Ontario and move into the GTA and they fight it out in the suburbs of Toronto,” he said. “I think the Liberal strategy will continue to target those seats in the GTA rather than trying to find a way back into more rural Ontario.”
The Green Party of Ontario has potential to become an alternative to the PCs in the riding, he said.
Wellington-Halton Hills is seeing “big cities spilling into the riding” which he said could be seen as a threat to a riding constituent’s way of life so an anti-sprawl and “anti-growth of Toronto into everything” message could speak to PC voters.
That said, the Green Party of Ontario hasn’t had a strong showing in past elections in the riding, although he added having party leader MPP Mike Schreiner elected in nearby Guelph helps.
“But if you were to say down the road, who might be able to unseat the Conservatives in another election or two, the Greens are probably as good as a bet as the NDP or the Liberals,” he said.
A provincial election has not been called but there has been some speculation Premier Doug Ford will call an early election. He recently told reporters at Queen’s Park he needs a stronger mandate to deal with the Donald Trump administration’s threat of tariffs.