WELLINGTON COUNTY – Farmers are certain tariffs will impact the local agriculture industry, but what that impact will look like remains to be seen.
Wellington Federation of Agriculture president Barclay Nap said there is a lot still unknown about how U.S. tariffs and retaliatory Canadian tariffs will impact local farmers since no one knows how long they'll be in place and whether they will remain.
This follows the Trump administration announcing it has paused 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and a lower 10 per cent charge on Canadian energy until April 2.
"If this is going to be a couple of months, I don't think it'll make a change. If this is going to go on for the next three and a half years, there will be some huge changes," said Nap. "Wellington County is very connected to the rest of the province so it's a lot of just wait and see how this goes."
So far, local farmers have had mixed reactions since tariffs were implemented on March 4: some are "very optimistic" and think they won't last long while others are "very tense" due to their dependence on the U.S.
"There are mental health resources out there for farmers that are feeling stressed about what's happening," said Nap, referencing hotlines like Ag Talk and the National Farmer Crisis Line. "They can reach out, they're not alone in this and I would really encourage them to make use of those resources when and if they do need them."
Calling the new pause "a welcome relief," executive director of the Ontario Agri-Business Association Russel Hurst said the tariff back and forth is creating uncertainty in the marketplace that makes business planning decisions difficult especially as farmers decide whether to diversify their businesses or wait it out.
Over the last two days, Hurst said business has "really slowed down," with some grain traders stopping trades with the U.S. due to the uncertainty whereas others are looking for alternative options in new markets.
"It's a chaotic time. The reality is from a producer standpoint, we're heading into the spring season which is a high-stress season for many growers so you're always concerned about mental health and this is just another stress in the marketplace," said Hurst. "I hope it's figured out sooner than later, but our mindset is that it's going to be an interesting four years."
While Canada's other free trade agreements will help fill some of the gaps during the Canada-U.S. trade war, Nap said Canadians have to be willing to adjust their eating habits, especially when it comes to prepared meals or products predominantly made with products from outside of Canada, like peanut butter.
"I think people will see changes in some pricing at the grocery store," said Nap. "It's going to tweak our eating habits ... we either have to find a different source or we have to be willing to pay that extra 25 per cent."
According to Nap, Ontario farmers sell the majority of their pork, beef, wheat and barley to the U.S. with Wellington County representing eight per cent of all Ontario pork and barley farms and seven per cent of Ontario's wheat.
And it's not just crops. Nap said the tariffs could impact fertilizer, diesel and potash sales, not to mention Canada is also home to some of the best livestock genetics in the world, exporting a lot of live breeding animals, semen and eggs to the U.S.
"So Americans need to eat but are they willing to pay a price with a tariff on it? That's the question," said Nap.
Comparing the impacts on a small-scale versus a large-scale farm, Nap said larger operations are anticipated to be impacted less since they can likely absorb increased costs better but it depends on the industry.
A small producer himself, Nap said he, like a lot of other farmers, has already ordered seed and fertilizer in an attempt to get ahead of the tariffs but it's hard to account for things like replacement machinery parts since most people don't know when something is going to break down.
"A large operation will have more breakdowns because they have more equipment, but when equipment does break down at a smaller operation, they're going to feel it more," said Nap. "We don't have alternate suppliers for a lot of these machine parts."
Matthew Steinman, the co-owner of Heartwood Farm and Cidery outside Erin, agreed that while the trade war could devastate the Ontario economy, the silver lining is that it presents an opportunity to look at supply chains and reduce inter-provincial trade barriers.
A hyper-local business operating for seven years, 100 per cent of Heartwood's ingredients come from Ontario farmers, are made in Ontario and are mostly sold to Ontarians which Steinman says puts them in a unique position for the ongoing trade war. They do not sell to the U.S.
"We have some of the best apple growing and cherry growing conditions in the world here so why shouldn't we be world-renowned for our cider and our fruit," said Steinman. "I really do think that this presents an opportunity for us to look at how we can build resilience into our business and natural ecosystem moving forward."
Since discussions about the trade war and tariffs began, Steinman said they've definitely noticed an increase in sales at Heartwood, calling residents' reactions "nothing short of phenomenal."
"People are examining supply chains. They're thinking about where their food comes from. They're thinking about how stuff is made. And there's been a clear push towards building a resilient business and natural ecosystem because those two things go hand in hand here in Canada," said Steinman. "I think that, despite the circumstances, it's a great thing for us all to consider moving forward."
So why don't more businesses go hyper-local? Steinman said it often comes down to supply chain availability and keeping costs down but he believes more businesses are going to lean local once they start examining their supply chains, cross-border transportation and the risks associated with those options.
"Typically, people and businesses have often thought sourcing locally or being environmentally conscious has to come at the expense of profit," said Steinman. "From what we've seen, that's not the case. You can do both."
To support local farmers, Nap said consumers are on the right path right now with the movement to buy Canadian but "we need another Anita Stewart" to help lead people with questions and concerns.
Using Quebec's COVID-19 business strategy as an example, Nap said he'd love to see Ontario provide grants and investments to help improve the domestic supply.
The County of Wellington has launched a tariff support page on its website to help support local businesses navigate any potential economic challenges.
Isabel Buckmaster is the Local Journalism Initiative reporter for GuelphToday. LJI is a federally-funded program.